• Australia’s projected headline inflation rate is expected to decrease significantly to 3.4% from the previous 4.1%, potentially impacting trading positions and market sentiment.
  • Traders anticipate a 60% chance of a rate cut by the RBA in December, a likelihood that may shift depending on the actual inflation figure and its deviation from the forecasted 3.4%.

Next week, Australia will unveil its latest inflation figures.   

Import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to iCloud, Google, or Outlook to get alerts direct to your inbox, enabling you to plan your positions in advance and seize trading opportunities. 

Projections suggest a notable dip in Australia’s headline inflation to 3.4%, down from the previous 4.1%, a steep decline that could fail to materialize.   

other advanced economies are poised to outperform Australia in price reduction efforts, with a median inflation rate expected to reach 2% by 2025. “Somewhat worryingly, progress toward inflation targets has somewhat stalled since the beginning of the year”, said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist.   

Traders currently anticipate a 60% likelihood of a rate cut by the RBA in December. However, if the actual inflation figure falls short of the forecasted 3.4%, this expectation may diminish, potentially bolstering the AUD.   

Yesterday’s marginal uptick in the unemployment rate to 3.8% last month suggests that February’s unexpected drop to 3.7% was not an anomaly. This development may only make it more difficult for the Reserve Bank to consider initiating rate cuts in the near future.