Join research director Kathleen Brooks at 12pm GMT today,

Join research director Kathleen Brooks at 12pm GMT today, as she discusses the biggest market moves ahead of tomorrow's UK Budget, and why the market is convinced Trump will win the election.

Join Kathleen HERE

The UK’s Budget on Wednesday is dominating the outlook for the UK. Tax rises are widely expected, and the Chancellor has already outlined the change to the debt rules. This caused UK Gilt yields to climb to their highest level since early July last week. The new debt measure, which is called Public Sector net financial liabilities, stood at 82% of GDP at the end of the 2023-2024 financial year. This is an improvement on the near 100% of GDP, measured by public sector net debt, however even public sector net financial liabilities is rising. This means that changing the debt rules is not a magic bullet for the Chancellor, and it will not make the UK’s fiscal challenges disappear.

On another note, we’re just one week away from the US election. While polls show Kamala Harris as the frontrunner, the markets are still leaning toward a Trump victory.