BTC Breaking Out

Bitcoin prices are on the move this week with the leading cryptocurrency making a strong push north over the last 24 hours.  The futures market is now testing levels not seen since June with a strong possibility that we test the all-time highs in coming sessions if the current bullish momentum continues. Seasonality trends point to October as one of the best performing months for BTC and with this week’s rally, the market is now up more than 12% on the month and up more than 21% off the month’s lows.

Trump Crypto Bets

A big driver behind the current move higher in BTC is the shift in market sentiment on the US elections. Traders have started pricing in a higher risk of Trump winning, in line with a pro-Trump shift in polling results in recent weeks. Crypto betting platform Polymarket current shows Trump ahead with a 30% margin, though Harris remains ahead by 1.5% in national polls.

With Trump seen as the more pro-crypto candidate, a Republican win could ignite a fresh bull phase in crypto markets. Trump has made several pledges to the crypto community, including an easier regulatory environment, which should drive higher demand for crypto businesses and products.

Volatility Risks

The current move higher is being supported by record levels of open interest, reflecting feverish demand ahead of the elections. With institutional flow now able to access the market via ETFs, the next few weeks promise to be a volatile time for BTC. A Trump win could easily see BTC breaking out to fresh highs while a Harris win could fuel a violent dumping of BTC longs.

Technical Views

BTC

The rally in BTC this week has seen the market breaking out above the 69,355 highs. Price is now testing the bull channel highs and the 72,550 level resistance. With momentum studies bullish, focus is on a continuation higher while we hold above 69,355 with the ATH around 74,355 the next target for bulls. In the Signal Centre today we have a buy limit at 67,625, suggesting a preference to buy into any dips.