Bitcoin Outlook: Can BTC Sustain Gains Amid Spot ETF Inflows and Election Buzz?
BTC Breaks $70,000 Barrier
On Monday, October 28, BTC rallied 2.63%, following a 1.22% gain from the previous session, closing at $69,762. Significantly, BTC broke through the $70,000 barrier for the first time since June 12.
US BTC-Spot ETFs Drive BTC to Five-Month High
On Monday, the US BTC-spot ETF market extended its net inflow streak to four sessions. According to Farside Investors:
- ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw net inflows of $59.8 million (Previous day: +$33.4 million).
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) reported net inflows of $44.1 million. (PD: +$56.9 million).
- Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) had net inflows of $38.7 million. (PD: +$2.5 million).
- Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw net inflows of $21.6 million. (PD: zero net flows).
Excluding Monday’s flow data for iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the US BTC-spot ETF market had total net inflows of $164.2 million, down from $402 million of inflows on Friday, October 25.
October has been an impressive month for the US BTC-spot ETF market, with net inflows of $3,304.3 million to date. By comparison, the US BTC-spot ETF market had net inflows of $1,262.8 million in September and outflows of $92.2 million in August.
The influence of the US BTC-spot ETF market on BTC price trends is evident in the monthly price chart.
US BTC-Spot ETF Inflows Mitigate Oversupply Risk
US BTC-spot inflows have been crucial in supporting BTC price trends. In July, the German government completed the sale of $2 billion equivalent in BTC, seized from Movie2k. $3,168.7 million of net inflows into the BTC-spot ETF market offset the $2 billion, supporting a BTC gain of 3.08% in July.
Current inflow trends also mitigate oversupply risk stemming from potential sales by the US government, which currently has a 208,109 BTC stockpile, equivalent to $14.61 billion.
Trump, the US Presidential Election, and New Highs
The US Presidential Election could prove pivotal for BTC price trends. While Vice President Kamala Harris has voiced support for cryptos, Donald Trump has positioned himself as a stronger crypto advocate. Trump pledged to make BTC a strategic US reserve and the US government a BTC HODLER.
Removing the risk of a sizeable US government BTC sale and increased BTC demand through US BTC-spot ETFs could propel BTC to new highs.
Stay updated with our real-time BTC analysis for further insights on managing potential risks.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin Analysis
BTC sits comfortably above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.
A breakout from $71,500 could support a move toward the all-time high of $73,808. Furthermore, a return to $73,808 may allow the bulls to target $75,000.
Investors should consider sentiment toward US BTC-spot ETF flows, the US Presidential Election, and SEC activity.
Conversely, a drop below $70,000 would bring the $69,000 support level into play. A fall through the $69,000 support level could signal a drop toward the 50-day EMA.
With a 67.98 14-day RSI reading, BTC may return to $73,808 before entering overbought territory.
Ethereum Analysis
ETH hovers above the 50-day EMA while remaining below the 200-day EMA, sending bullish near-term but bearing longer-term price signals.
An ETH break above the $2,664 resistance level could signal a move toward the 200-day EMA. Furthermore, a breakout from the 200-day EMA may bring the $3,033 resistance level into play.
US ETH-spot ETF market-related updates also require consideration.
Conversely, a drop below the 50-day EMA could signal a fall to the $2,403 support level.
The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 53.29, indicates an ETH break above the 200-day EMA before entering overbought territory.
