US monthly data pack for February, including PCE inflation data, was released today at 12:30 pm GMT. Report was expected to show no change in headline as well as core PCE on an annual basis.

Actual data turned out to be mostly in-line with expectations. However, headline PCE acelerated unexpectedly. Personal income data missed expectations while personal spending data beat expectations. A beat in headline PCE seems to be driving market reaction as response can be seen as dovish. USD dropped, pushing EURUSD to retest daily highs.

US, monthly data pack for February

  • Headline PCE (annual): 2.5% YoY vs 2.4% YoY expected (2.4% YoY previously)
  • Headline PCE (monthly): 0.3% MoM vs 0.4% MoM expected (0.3% MoM previously)
  • Core PCE (annual): 2.8% YoY vs 2.8% YoY expected (2.8% YoY previously)
  • Core PCE (monthly): 0.3% MoM vs 0.3% MoM expected (0.3% MoM previously)
  • Personal Income: 0.3% MoM vs 0.4% MoM expected (1.0% MoM previously)
  • Personal Spending: 0.8% MoM vs 0.5% MoM expected (0.2% MoM previously)

Source: xStation5