• Investors might be expecting Bitcoin and other risk assets to benefit from a larger-than-expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
  • Bank of America advises focusing on the Fed’s dot plot, which could signal higher future interest rates, even if Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintains a cautious tone.

Investors are hopeful that risk assets like Bitcoin could see strong gains if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points instead of the previously anticipated 25 basis points. 

However, Bank of America (BofA) urges caution. They recommend not overreacting to any initial market reaction after the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. According to BofA, the real focus should be on the Fed’s dot plot, which could have a bigger impact than the actual rate cut. 

BofA expects the Fed’s dot plot to show higher interest rate expectations than what the market is currently predicting. Despite this, they believe Fed Chair Jerome Powell will maintain a more cautious, or “dovish,” tone in his comments. 

What is the dot plot? 

The dot plot is a chart that shows where each Federal Reserve member thinks interest rates will be in the coming years. Each dot represents one member’s view. It’s a useful guide for understanding where the Fed members sees interest rates in the future. 

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