The poll promise of giving Rs 2,000 or Rs 2,100 to every woman aged 18-60 in Haryana will likely cost around Rs 21,000 crore per year or 1.7 percent of the state's FY25 GDP to the exchequer, equivalent to half of what the it collects from Goods and Services Tax revenue, according to an MC analysis of data.

In their manifestos, both national parties-the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Indian National Congress, have promised Rs 2,100 and Rs 2,000 per month, respectively, for every woman in the state.

The BJP's manifesto, released on September 19, noted that it would provide Rs 2,100 per month to every woman in the state under the Lado Lakshmi Yojana, while the main opposition party has promised Rs 2,000 per woman in the 18-60 age group.

The state is headed for elections on October 5.

According to the 2020 Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections released by the Ministry of Health and Welfare, Haryana's population is expected to be 30.8 million in 2024, of which 14.5 million are likely to be women.

An age-wise analysis shows that nearly 60 percent of the women, or nearly 8.7 million, will likely belong to the 18-60 age group.

But Haryana is not the first state where parties have made such promises.

In Maharashtra, the government, in its interim Budget—the state is headed to elections later this year—announced the Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin scheme. The programme, which guarantees a cash transfer of Rs 1,500 for all women in the 21-60 age group with an annual family income of less than Rs 2.5 lakh, has an outlay of Rs 46,000 crore.

In 2021, West Bengal government announced the Lakshmi Bhandhar Scheme, which provides cash transfers to women, while Tamil Nadu launched a similar programme in 2023.

Besides these, Assam, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, and Himachal Pradesh are some other states that have announced similar cash transfer programmes with varying payouts.

More recently, on September 17, the prime minister launched the Subhadra Yojana, which guarantees a Rs 10,000 payment for each year over the next five years to eligible women beneficiaries aged 21-60.

In Haryana, the parties have promised households an LPG cylinder for Rs 500, which is expected to cost another Rs 1,500 crore.

Besides, Congress has promised a return to the Old Pension Scheme for government employees, which may save some amount in the short run, but will add to the burden in the future. The parties in the fray are also offering increased health cover, MSP guarantee for more crops and more jobs among other benefits.

Can Haryana afford another Rs 20,000 crore on its budget?

Assuming that the government introduces income limits, like most states have done for the programme, and provides benefits to 67 percent of the population—Maharashtra’s scheme is expected to cover 25 million of the approximately 36 million women in the state—the scheme will still cost around Rs 13,000 crore or over 1 percent of its projected GDP for the year.

The state expects to collect Rs 12,650 crore from excise duties in FY25.

An analysis of Budget data from 2024-25 shows that the state may have some fiscal space to accommodate more spending. An addition of 2 percent of GDP will still keep the debt contained at 28 percent of the GSDP, lower than the 33 percent of GDP set by the Fifteenth Finance Commission.

However, it will add burden to the state's capacity. Committed expenditure or what the state spends on salaries, pensions and interest is expected to account for 57 percent of the state’s earnings.

Moreover, the state has slowed down on its capex plans. Against a budgeted capex of Rs 18,460 crore in FY24, Haryana could only spend Rs 14,443 crore as per revised estimates. It has Budgeted just Rs 16,281 crore in FY25, lower than the Budget estimate of FY24.