Crude Oil Forecast: Continues to Recover
- The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market initially fell a bit during the day on Tuesday, only to turn around and show signs of life again.
- It looks like we are going to go looking to the $71.50 level above, an area that has a certain amount of “market memory” attached to it due to the fact that the market had previously been so heavily supported in that region.
Looking at the size of the candlestick, it does suggest that we have quite a bit of momentum underneath, and this is a market that continues to be very noisy, but quite frankly it gotten so oversold that it made sense that sooner or later people would jump in and try to take advantage of “cheap barrels of oil.” With that being said, the market were to break above the $71.50 level, then I think you got a situation where the market goes looking to the 50 Day EMA above, near the $74 level.
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1Geopolitics and Global Economic Concerns
Keep in mind that the crude oil markets are highly sensitive to geopolitics, as the Middle East currently sees a hot war going on, and quite frankly it wouldn’t surprise to many people if it expanded a bit. Furthermore, we also have to keep in mind that the crude oil market is a measure of global economic activity, and therefore I think it’s a situation where the market perhaps getting a little bit of a boost due to the Federal Reserve cutting rates may send crude oil higher. However, if we are starting to see the global economic situation deteriorated a bit, the demand for crude oil will continue to cause issues for the price.
It’s also worth noting that the Chinese have recently started to move from crude oil to natural gas for bigger rigs and buses, so perhaps there is a little bit of arbitrage that had played out recently, but at the end of the day, I think we are starting to see a fairly significant recovery here.
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