Daily Market Report: Expert Technical & Fundamental Insights – 17.10.2024

EURUSD: Selling EUR continued for the last four consecutive sessions, was almost unchanged today at $1.0854 vs USD. Big Thursday ahead with ECB rate decision, monetary policy statement & ECB President Lagarde press conference, not to forget the release of EZ inflation numbers. ECB is expected to cut its deposit rate by 0.25% as inflation in EZ dropped to 1.8%. While the rate cut was already priced in, traders will re-shift the focus to Lagarde’s press conference & short-term outlook by the central bank.

 
Our technical call was accurate, three support levels have been executed. Market bears remained in control.

USDJPY: Japan’s trade deficit expanded in September after exports fell by -1.7%, and imports grew by 2.1% . USDJPY was unchanged today at 149.45, waiting for Japan’s national consumer price index later today. Japan’s inflation remained at 3%, higher than BoJ’s target of 2%, but the Japanese officials are unlikely to push for higher rates soon. We keep an eye on the performance of USD, busy calendar from the US on Thursday.

Price action is still heading higher with lower velocity, targeting the last major resistance at 150. 147.50 & 146 are important support levels. Positive channel persists.

GBPUSD dropped for three consecutive days, and traded slightly weaker today at $1.2974, the lowest in two months. UK annual inflation fell to 1.7% in September, weaker than before 2.2% and wages growth slowed as well to fresh two-year low, in other words, UK economy is not doing well, that’s why GBP fell & USD strengthened. BoE monetary policy hearings by House of Commons will be later today.

Bearish mode continued, edging lower to $1.2940 . Technical correction ( if happens) will target $1.3030 . Volatility will increase by afternoon.

GOLD: New record high in gold after gold increased to $2683 per ounce in today early morning. Many traders think that gold has become an expensive asset, but the question: what is the standard they are relying on? Dovish stance by the major central banks, cheaper & continuous liquidity from China were the major catalysts in this rally and still intact as well.

Market bears have limited options for correction. $2668 & $2647 are short-term support (profit taking) , next major target will be at $2700 , which is doable according to the velocity of the price action.

Silver traded lower this morning at $31.61 per ounce. All eyes in silver market will focus on the US industrial production & capacity utilizations (Thursday) , China’s GDP numbers & industrial production on Friday. According to Silver Institute, silver mines production is still down by -1% YoY in 2024, and the demand was stronger in 2023 compared to 2024.

1H price action is heading higher to the 2nd major resistance (likely to be today and executed as well on Wednesday) . Technical correction to $31.30 is possible. $31 & $30.50 are support for day-traders.

OIL: According to API, US weekly crude oil inventories fell by -1.5 million barrels last week after it increased by more than 10 million barrels two weeks before. Crude oil prices slightly increased today, WTI $70.61PB, Brent $74.45 PB. EIA will release the US weekly inventories later today. Sustainability of oil prices lacks stronger global demand, mid to long -term outlook in oil remains challenging.

$72.90 is the support for day-traders, then $71.80 ( both are executed ) then $69.90 .Price action remained bearish as the traders’ behavior showed. Higher volatility will persist. Correction to $72 may happen as 1H RSI is slowly increasing.

DAX index closed lower by -0.3% on Wednesday at 19433, DAX futures traded higher today. 30Y bond auction in Germany showed higher yields, however it doesn’t mean that the risk appetite improved ( higher yields mean lower bond prices) . Yesterday, Adidas dropped by -6.2% and was the worst performing stock. ECB rate decision & monetary policy statement later today will be vital for more gains. Momentum index improved, will help in heading higher to the last major resistance. 19140 is support then 19035 ( correction – if any). Trader’s behavior remained cautiously bullish.

Nasdaq: US stock futures traded weaker today after closing higher on Wednesday. Dow Jones again jumped by 0.79% to an all-time high, SPX gained 0.47% and Nasdaq rose by 0.28%. Morgan Stanley rallied by 6.5% after the earnings beat the estimates, Netflix & Blackstone will be later today. Busy day ahead in the US with the weekly initial jobless claims, industrial production, housing index & the most will be the US retail sales.

Technical correction started from 20500 , the next support will be at 19750 , however the price action is not yet fully bearish. Higher volatility ahead.

Bitcoin slightly fell today & traded at $67445, Eth $2633 & Ripple advanced to $0.5580. According to CNBC, Trump’s coin sale misses target as crypto projects’ website crashes. At the same time, according to Galaxy Digital, crypto venture capital funding fell 20% to $2.4 billion over the third quarter in 2024.

Higher volatility will continue, so beware of the aggressive correction ( if happens ) that may target $62500 & $61700. Price action is still supporting further advance to $68400.