Dow Jones Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones 30 drifted lower in the early hours on Friday, as it looks like we are going to continue to drop and look to see whether or not the 50 day EMA continues to offer support. Ultimately, this is a market that is a little stretched and perhaps as pullback as necessary, and quite frankly, that could give us a little bit of value that people will be looking for.

After all, we’ve been in an uptrend for quite some time, but that recent sell-off that really started to kick off on Tuesday suggests that there might be some form of trouble brewing under the surface, but I don’t, at least at this point, think that it is something overly nefarious or something that you need to worry about quite yet.

If we break down below the 50 day EMA, then we could see a little bit more of a rush towards the trend line, which is also backed up by the 200 day EMA. On the other hand, if we turn around and rally, the 41,700 level is a barrier that I think a lot of people will be paying close attention to. And if we can break above there, then it gives all clear for more of a buy and hold strategy.

Keep in mind we do have an interest rate decision coming up from the Federal Reserve, which is expected to be an interest rate cut of 25 basis points, but that’s more likely than not already priced in, so the question at that point in time is going to be whether or not they sound like they are going to aggressively cut later. Remember the Dow Jones 30 is full of major industrial companies that will benefit from stimulus as well, so if we get that, that might be part of what people were banking on. That also could help this index rally over the longer term.

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