India will come out relatively unscathed from policy changes that promote trade protectionism if Donald Trump wins the United States election, ratings agency Fitch said on October 14.

The global ratings agency noted that trade protectionism in the United States is likely to lead to significantly lower growth in the Asia-Pacific region.

“Under a worst-case scenario with retaliation from the US’s trading partners, growth in China, South Korea and Vietnam would be particularly affected, with real GDP in 2028 being 1% or more below the level under our current baseline. India, which is less export-oriented, would be relatively unaffected,” it noted.

US is one of the largest trading partners of India, with the country exporting goods worth $78 billion to the US in 2023-24.

“Geopolitical risks, notably stemming from tensions between China and the US, could be a significant factor for APAC irrespective of the winner of the presidential election, but would be likely to be raised if trade protectionism rises sharply,” the rating agency said.

“This could result in a more volatile global economic environment, and potentially put upward pressure on governments’ defence spending, adding to fiscal consolidation challenges,” Fitch further added.