BTC Seasonality

The rally in Bitcoin off the September lows has stalled over recent sessions with price capped by the August highs around 65.02. The recent shift in Fed expectations has helped bolter BTC sentiment, amidst a general uptick in risk appetite. With the Fed now expected to press ahead with at least a further .5% of easing this year, risk markets look poised for fresh gains. Still, it has been a frustrating period for Bitcoin traders since YTD highs printed in March. Price has traded in a broad corrective channel over the last six months between lows of 53,525 and the 72,550 highs. Seasonally, BTC tends to struggle over the summer period before regaining bullish momentum in October, which has typically been a high yielding month.

Bullish Options Market Skew

Despite the recent lack of momentum, volatility might return to the market this week with a huge amount of option expiries due on Friday. Industry-tracker CoinDesk reports that there is around $5.8 billion in quarterly expiries due on Friday with a good amount of these options due to expire in the money. The closure and rollover of options at the end of the week could see strong price moves, particularly given the negative put-call skew beyond this expiry, a bullish indicator for the market. Given the bullish skew in options and the backdrop of increasing central bank easing, the BTC outlook looks encouraging over the coming month.

Technical Views

BTC

The rally in BTC has stalled for now into a test of the 65,025 level (August highs). With momentum studies bullish, focus is on a continuation higher while price holds above the 60,695 level, targeting a test of the bear channel highs and 69,355 level next.