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The prediction of an above normal monsoon  in 2024 comes as welcome relief for India's agriculture and allied sectors. Large parts of the South and other regions of the country are facing drought-like conditions. Adverse weather conditions have impacted several crops in the recent Rabi season. Many are worried about the upcoming Kharif, the biggest crop season that is largely rain-fed. Water levels at major reservoirs dropped to 33 percent of storage capacity and sales of agriculture inputs such as tractors and agrochemicals have slowed.

A good monsoon season can alleviate some of the pressures that industry is facing and lift rural sentiment, even though much also depends on the timely onset and spatial distribution of the rains.

Note that the transition of hot weather phenomenon El Nino to La Nina conditions that are associated with good rainfall is not always smooth. Late onset of La Nina can result in lower rainfall in the initial phase of the monsoon season when crop sowing takes place. Read our story to find out how normal monsoons will go a long way in reviving the agriculture inputs industry. While investors may be looking skywards in coming months, seeking good news on the monsoon front, eyes are also on the skies in the Middle East where a different sort of heat is threatening to spread.

Investors are awaiting Israel’s next move over Iran. Our columnist Vijay L Bhambwani presents a scenario analysis on Israel’s response to Iran’s attacks, which can vary from defensive measures to a full-blown retaliation. But a full-blown disruption to global trade and major trading routes are fairly low, argues Bhambwani. Do read.

My colleague Shishir Asthana scanned studies of wars, conflicts and their impact on the stock markets. Findings of the studies hold out some hope for investors. Markets of the warring countries are worst hit. However, markets elsewhere in the world find their feet once the outcome is evident and logistical supply chain challenges are addressed, writes Asthana, citing the Russia-Ukraine conflict as an example. You can read the story here.

Perhaps the biggest challenge the world faces is the spectre of sticky inflation and higher interest rates for a longer duration. Frequent geopolitical conflicts do not augur well for the inflation outlook— as they stoke commodity prices. Investors should keep a wary eye on economic indicators.

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Technical Picks: Infosys, Hindalco, Coforge, Bajaj Finance, and Gold mini (These are published every trading day before markets open and can be read on the app)

R Sreeram
Moneycontrol Pro