Yesterday's successful session on Wall Street boosted sentiment on Asian exchanges, and today's futures market trading indicates that the rebound is continuing. The US100 is gaining more than 1.5%, with the US500 up 1.1%, despite disappointing results from Super Micro Computer, the manufacturer of server racks used in data centres and AI; shares are trading down 13% after the quarterly earnings. The VIX index loses -5% and remains near 23 zone
Futures on the Nikkei, JAP225 are trading up more than 6%, continuing the rebound after a record series of declines since 1987. At the same time, the yen is weakening, and the USDJPY pair gains more than 2% today, rising above 147.5; Japanese leading indicator change came in -2.6 vs 0.3 previously
The Nikkei was followed by the KOSPI, which gained nearly 2.5% today. The Australian index fared relatively less well and rose 0.5% against a more than 1.6% rise in China's Hang Seng Index. Chinese index futures gain more than 2%
EURUSD is trading above 1.091 and is down -0.16% today. German industrial data scheduled for 8:00 a.m. could raise volatility on the Eurodollar. Yields on 10-year U.S. bonds are rising above 3.91%, and a number of analysts have commented that the panic reaction to weaker U.S. data was exaggerated, while the chances of a recession are still limited
Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US) reported weaker quarterly results than forecasts ($6.12 vs. $8.12 forecasts), also revenues of $5.31 billion missed expectations of $5.32 billion. The company's profit expectations for the current quarter ($7.48 vs. $7.58 forecasts and $6.5 billion in revenue vs. $5.52 billion forecasts) missed projections. Super Micro announced a 10:1 split (effective October 1, 2024). Gross margins were unexpectedly the lowest since 2007; they fell to 11.2% vs. 15.5% in the previous quarter and 17% a year ago. By some investors, the Super Micro report was said to 'give guidance' on AI trend, as Nvidia Q2 won't be known until August 28; after SMCI report, Nvidia shares lose 2.5% after US session
Oil is gaining more than 0.6%, and similarly, a small rebound is seen in natural gas (NATGAS) contracts. Yesterday's API data indicated a lower-than-expected inventory change of 180,000 barrels vs. 850,000 barrels forecast and a -4.49 million barrel drop previously
The rebound continues in the cryptocurrency market, where Bitcoin is already approaching $57,000 and gaining more than 1%. On Monday, the price of the largest cryptocurrency fell to $47k. Ethereum gains 1.5% and rises above $2,500
Pimco's Ivascyn expects two-three Fed rate cuts this year, the first 25 bps cut in September and told that 'The US recession risk has increased, but a soft landing is still more likely.' Also, Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon thinks that the Fed will forgo an emergency cut, and see no US recession.
Today's macro calendar is relatively sparse; the change in US gas and oil inventories according to the EIA is scheduled for 3:30 PM GMT. At 6:30 PM GMT we'll learn the Bank of Canada's minutes from its last meeting, and at 8 PM GMT US consumer credit data for July (expected $10 billion vs. $11.35 billion previously). The most important report is probably German industrial production (July report) scheduled at 7 AM GMT; markets expect stronger MoM (exp. 1% vs -2.5% previously) but still weak data (-4.2% YoY vs -6.67% previously)