Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The natural gas market rallied significantly during the early hours on Friday as we continue to go higher. At this point in time, the market looks very likely to see short-term pullbacks as potential buying opportunities. And I do recognize that the $3 level is an area that should have a certain amount of market memory built into it due to the fact that it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. And it’s an area where we’ve seen action in the past. All things being equal, this is a situation where you’re looking to buy dips to take advantage of cheap gas.

I think at this point in time, we are focusing more or less on the idea of colder temperatures coming to the northeastern part of the United States. So that comes into play as well. I don’t have any interest in trying to short natural gas, at least not this time of year. The biggest thing to keep in mind with natural gas is you have to watch your leverage because it is weather driven so it’s very erratic at times. But over the last several weeks it’s just been a nice steady climb higher.

Now, full disclosure, I got in at about $2.12 and got out at $3.00 in my ETF position. It’s fine. I do it every year. It’s not a big deal, as far as how much further we go, we’ll have to wait and see, but my suspicion is we’re probably closer to the end than not.

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