BRUSSELS — Governments are dragging their feet on a required plan to make the European Union’s climate ambitions a reality, jeopardizing efforts to eradicate the bloc’s global warming contributions by mid-century. 

Only four of the 27 EU governments — the Netherlands, Denmark, Finland and Sweden — met a Sunday deadline to submit their so-called National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs), a core document for officials to show how they’re going to hit their share of the bloc’s emissions-cutting target for 2030. A fifth, Italy, filed its plan on Monday. 

It’s the second consecutive blow in the process. Most EU countries were already late last year in submitting drafts of their climate plans. And when the documents did finally trickle in, the EU executive’s verdict was damning: The plans, it said, showed the bloc wouldn’t hit its 2030 goal to slash at least 55 percent of its emissions compared to 1990 levels. 

Each country was required to amend its draft to make up for the shortfall by June 30. 

But even the few final plans that have landed show governments conceding they are behind, cautioning that far-right successors might change course, or quibbling with the EU’s requirements. 

The ongoing delays and the shortcomings of the plans, climate activists warn, are endangering the EU’s Green Deal — as well as the bloc's global reputation, as falling behind on domestic goals also means failing to meet international commitments. 

“The EU’s credibility as a climate champion is at stake,” said Cornelia Maarfield, head of energy at green nonprofit CAN Europe. “The NECPs also play a central role to ensure the EU ambition is at the right level to meet the requirements of the Paris Agreement.” 

The climate plan laggards may now face legal action. The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, said on Monday that “as a first step” it would raise the issue at this month’s meetings of EU climate and energy ministers.

But a Commission spokesperson told POLITICO the EU executive was not ruling out the legal stick: “Whenever necessary and appropriate, the Commission will use the available legal options to ensure compliance with EU legislation.” 

Falling short 

Many EU leaders have called on the Commission to shift its green focus from introducing new rules to ensuring the implementation of climate legislation passed in recent years. But the ball is now in their court, the EU executive says. 

“We have worked hard to agree ambitious and science-based legislative targets with the European Parliament and member states,” the Commission spokesperson said. “Now it is time for national authorities to turn them into concrete plans.” 

The NECPs are meant to turn EU climate legislation into national action — and ensure the bloc meets recently adopted legal targets such as running on 42.5 percent renewable energy and reducing energy consumption by 11.7 percent by 2030.

The drafts that arrived over the past year showed that most governments don’t intend to hit their renewable energy commitments. Only eight countries — Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, Greece, Italy, Lithuania, Luxembourg and Spain — submitted targets above or in line with the law, while three more countries — Croatia, Germany and Portugal — nearly got there. All others are expected to come in either below or “significantly below” their targets. 

The EU executive highlighted these shortcomings in a note to EU energy ministers in May, saying the drafts showed the bloc only hitting 39 percent on renewables and cutting energy use by just 8.8 percent. More broadly, the EU said the draft plans would only cut 51 percent of emissions by 2030, short of the 55 percent bar.

A key element of the plans is country-by-country mandates to cut emissions in sectors outside the EU’s carbon market. Known as the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR), the measure currently covers agriculture, road transport, buildings, waste and small industry. 

In their drafts, few countries said they would hit their ESR targets, and only six — Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Luxembourg, Slovenia and Spain — got a clear pass mark from the Commission. 

With the deadline passed, the next question is whether countries will deliver on substance. A glance at the five finalized plans — which will now be subject to a Commission assessment — shows a rather mixed picture. 

Denmark’s final plan made significant tweaks from a draft document found wanting in areas like ESR emissions. The country now says it’s on pace to hit those emissions targets because of an historic agreement last month to set a carbon price on agriculture. 

The Netherlands’ final plan offered updated projections to insist the country was now in line with key targets. But the document notes that everything could change under the incoming coalition government, which plans to scrap several climate measures.

Meanwhile, Sweden’s government, a coalition backed by the far right, openly disagrees with the EU’s renewables targets in its final NECP. 

The country has to achieve a 76 percent share by 2030, but according to its draft plan is only on track for 65 percent. The final NECP ups that to 67 percent, but says that Sweden will hit 78 percent “fossil-free” energy, a semantic tweak to lump together renewable and nuclear capacity. That should be the real benchmark, Sweden insists. 

Italy’s final plan acknowledges that the country will fall short of its ESR target even if it implements additional measures. “These policies, although very ambitious … allow emissions to be reduced by around 40.5 % by 2030,” the document reads. The country’s legal target is 43.7 percent. 

Finland, for its part, essentially submitted a final plan conceding it had more work to do. Current measures are “not sufficient,” the country’s final NECP acknowledges, adding that the right-leaning coalition government is currently working on a new strategy.

Austria begs for an extension

A handful of the 22 countries yet to submit a final plan may do so in the coming weeks, while many others are expected to take much longer. 

France, transfixed with pivotal parliamentary elections, is going to be “a little late,” a government advisor said in late June. A spokesperson for Spain’s ecological transition ministry said Monday that they hope to get there “as soon as possible.”

Major questions remain about Austria, which has not even submitted a draft, according to the Commission’s public records. Vienna is now subject to an "infringement procedure" from the Commission, a winding legal process that can eventually end in court battles and hefty fines.

Austrian media reported that the Green-led environment ministry had filed a draft last summer, but that the document was withdrawn by the conservative-led EU affairs ministry over complaints it didn't reflect the entire government’s position. 

The back-and-forth reflects the fissures that climate policy has driven in Austria’s government. Just last month, Green Environment Minister Leonore Gewessler openly defied the country’s conservative leader to approve a key EU nature law.

In a statement, Gewessler said the government was working on the NECP and was hoping to get it done by the “end of the summer.” 

Drafting the plan, she added, “requires extensive calculations by the Environment Agency … In order to be able to complete this work properly, the government is asking the Commission to extend the deadline.”

Climate campaigners are pressuring the Commission to use the legal tools at its disposal if countries aren’t submitting adequate plans.

“What we also expect from the Commission is a thorough review of what comes in and to make full use of the spectrum of enforcement mechanisms that they have available,” CAN Europe’s Maarfield said. 

The Commission, for now, is reminding governments that these plans aren’t optional — but are in fact key to convincing investors to fund the transition toward climate neutrality and away from pricey fossil fuels. 

“The timely submission of comprehensive plans will help to trigger the necessary investments to meet our 2030 targets,” the Commission spokesperson said. “The NECPs are also a vital tool to ensure the supply of secure, affordable and sustainable energy for Europe.”

Alexandre Léchenet and Nicolas Camut contributed reporting.