• The Bank of Japan’s decision remains highly unpredictable, with market sentiment divided between a 10-basis point hike and no change.
  • The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain current rates with only a 5% chance of a cut, while the Bank of England’s decision is closely contested with nearly equal chances of a rate cut. B

t’s a huge week for central banks with the Bank of Japan (BOJ), Federal Reserve (Fed), and Bank of England (BOE) set to deliver their decisions within a 32-hour window. Market activity remains largely subdued in anticipation.  

The BOJ’s decision is the most unpredictable. Current market sentiment suggests a ~60% likelihood of a 10-basis point hike and a ~40% chance of no change. A lack of action could undermine the yen’s recent gains with a potential resistance at 155.30 (100 MA).   

The Fed’s announcement is scheduled for Wednesday. Market expectations for a rate cut are just 5%. Investors are keenly awaiting any signals regarding a potential move in September.  

Finally, the Bank of England has the market guessing with an almost 50 –50 chance for a cut. GBP traders are also digesting a key speech from the new finance minister Rachel Reeves in which she unveiled plans for some spending cuts/ or tax increases to fill a £22bn spending shortfall that was ‘covered up’ by the Conservative government. Traders now also have 30th October to look forward to as the date of the autumn budget. 

For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.