Quick Brief – ISM manufacturing survey fails to please the Fed hawks
- ISM manufacturing survey prints at 47.2, below forecasts
- Employment subindex erases the August improvement
- Stocks are firmly in the red, smaller reaction in euro/dollar
The ISM manufacturing survey printed at 47.2, below market forecasts for a small improvement. Interestingly, the important employment subindex resumed its downward trend, with the remaining subcomponents also failing to improve.
Additionally, the final print of the September PMI manufacturing survey edged higher but remains stuck below its 50 threshold. On the flip side, the JOLTS job opening indicator managed to defy its recent trend and print again above the 8m level.
These data prints come amidst the debate about the size of the next Fed rate cut. Chairman Powell suggested that the Fed would likely stick with 25bps rate cuts moving forward, with a total of 50bps of easing announced by year-end. This has forced the market to reconsider the possibility for a 50bps at the November 7 meeting, but figures like the ISM manufacturing survey could put this option back on the table.
Euro/dollar remains in the red, but equities seem to have taken this ISM manufacturing release more seriously. Coupled with rumours for an imminent Iranian attack against Israel, the market momentum has turned negative.
