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  • OPEC+ anticipates increase of only 2.03 million bpd in 2024

  • WTI crude oil remains in strong bearish tendency

Oil prices have fallen sharply since the start of September, with OPEC+ announcing today a second consecutive downward adjustment to its global oil demand growth projection for 2024. The revised projection anticipates an increase of 2.03 million barrels per day (bpd), lower than the previous estimate of 2.11 million bpd. In addition, the projection for 2025 has been reduced from 1.78 million barrels per day to 1.74 million barrels. Divergent perspectives on China's economic trajectory and the worldwide transition to greener energy have led to substantial disagreement among analysts about the growth of oil demand in 2024.

Despite these changes, OPEC's estimations remain at the upper end of industry forecasts. Although the report projects China's economic development to remain strong, it acknowledges that challenges in the real estate sector and the growing popularity of electric vehicles could potentially reduce the demand for diesel and gasoline.

WTI crude oil prices remain close to their 15-month low of 67.17 that was reached on Monday, with the next support coming from the March 2023 low of 66.60. As long as the market remains below the significant 71.50 resistance level, the outlook will maintain a strong bearish structure.