LUXEMBOURG — Global talks on how to fund climate action are so tricky that countries may not reach a deal at next month’s United Nations summit, a key negotiator said on Monday.

Irish Environment Minister Eamon Ryan, who last week was appointed to co-lead part of the negotiations at the COP29 summit in Azerbaijan, warned that there’s a “real risk” of failure. 

“It’s not certain we will get agreement in Baku,” said Ryan, arriving at an EU meeting in Luxembourg where ministers will discuss the bloc’s COP29 position. “It’s not an easy issue when you come down to discussing the financial future and … multilateral cooperation is not exactly the flavor of the month at the moment. So there’s a real risk we might not get agreement.”

The Azerbaijani COP29 presidency last week chose Ryan to co-lead negotiations on preparing for the impacts of climate change, together with Costa Rica. 

Later on Monday, Ryan dipped out of the ongoing EU talks for an interview with POLITICO and other media outlets.

“I heard some of my colleagues … saying this is probably the most difficult negotiation since Paris,” he said, referring to the 2015 summit that concluded with the Paris climate accord.

At the Baku summit, which starts in less than a month, countries are meant to set a new long-term financial target to fund climate action in developing countries.

The current target of $100 billion a year is widely considered insufficient, and some developing nations are asking for that number to increase to $1 trillion or more. Industrialized countries, including the EU, say additional funding is contingent on expanding the group of contributors to emerging economies such as China.

Discussions around who chips in will be among the most critical parts of the talks, Ryan said. “Having everything frozen in aspic in 1992 terms is not rational,” he added, a reference to the year the U.N. climate framework treaty — which labeled countries as either industrialized or developing — was signed. 

One option, he suggested, is to get countries like China — which do provide climate finance in various forms, often in what’s called South-South cooperation — to lay out exactly the amount and conditions of the funding they provide. 

“Increased traceability and reporting may be one of the ways in which we address” the issue of contributors, he said, “because then you start to understand what’s actually happening in South-South investment and development.” 

The EU is also advocating for a “multi-layered” funding goal at COP29, encompassing a target for public finance complemented by funds raised from the private sector, development banks and other sources. 

“Climate financing will need more efforts from everyone involved,” said EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, arriving at the meeting in Luxembourg. “That means private sector financing, that means public sector financing, and what we do need is not only a commitment from the Europeans but also making sure that all those with the ability to pay rise to the occasion and take responsibility.”

Ryan pointed to findings published by the International Renewable Energy Agency last week that only a tiny amount of funding for clean energy went to Africa. Fixing that will require public finance as well as private funds, he said. 

But that doesn’t mean the EU should shirk away from stepping up its efforts, even if national budgets face significant constraints. 

“Europe still has a very significant economic capability … so we should stretch our ambition,” Ryan said. “That’s not going to be easy, but that is what we’re going to have to do.” 

The finance deal at COP29 has to be “substantive,” he added. “It could easily go in a wrong direction where it locks into distrust and a lack of progress.” 

Failure in Baku would send a devastating signal, Ryan warned. “It would be unforgivable if we didn’t get an agreement.”

This story has been updated.