TAG: economic-news
France: Higher-than-expected 2023 Deficit Tests Fiscal Targets
Rebuilding France’s (rated by Scope Ratings AA/Negative Outlook) fiscal buffers is more difficult because of the higher-than-expected budget deficit of 5.5% of GDP in 2023, exceeding government projections of 4.9%. This deviation reflects an excess defici...
6 months ago
Japan: Improved Inflation And Positive Effects For Debt Sustainability Underpin Stable Outlook
The Stable Outlook reflects a balanced view of risks to the rating agency’s assessment for Japan over the next 12-18 months. Japan’s long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings in local and foreign-currency were affirmed at A. The local and foreign...
6 months ago
Middle East Crisis: Geopolitics Remains a Downside Risk for the Global Economic and Credit Outlook
Although a full-scale military confrontation between Iran and Israel is not Scope Ratings’ base case, the recent confrontation between Israel and Iran has heightened risks for the Middle East.Beyond constructive efforts around de-escalation from regional...
5 months ago
USD/JPY Set for Further Decline as Bank of Japan Signals Further Rate Hikes
The recent rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has induced a sharp decline in the USD/JPY. This article provides a fundamental and technical overview of USD/JPY to determine the next direction for the pair and identify investment opportunities. It is fou...
1 month ago
France: Political Uncertainty Weighs on Public Finances and Funding Conditions
President Emmanuel Macron’s choice of Michel Barnier, a centre-right politician and the EU’s former Brexit negotiator, as France’s new prime minister leaves open the question of whether he can form a stable government with enough support in a deeply divid...
1 month ago
GBP/USD Forecast: Long-Term Resistance and Economic Uncertainty Weigh on the Pound
The GBP/USD pair is currently navigating a complex landscape shaped by long-term technical resistance and a series of economic challenges. With a 16-year trendline acting as a formidable barrier, the pair faces bearish pressure despite recent attempts to...
1 month ago
Gold and Silver Begins the Next Surge As Gold-Silver Ratio Peaks
The gold and silver markets have been experiencing significant volatility in recent months. This volatility is driven by technical factors, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical risks. As both metals are considered safe-haven assets, shifts in economic...
1 month ago
The Draghi Report: Political Stalemate and Europe’s Productivity Gap Curb Growth Outlook
The recent report by former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi on Europe’s future competitiveness emphasises the urgency of structural reforms to bolster Europe’s growth and reverse its slow productivity growth of the past 20 years.Europe faces a range o...
3 weeks ago
The 2024 US Presidential Election And Impact on the U.S. Dollar
The 2024 United States (U.S.) presidential election will be held on November 5, with voters selecting electors for the Electoral College to decide the president and vice president. President Joe Biden initially sought re-election but withdrew, endorsing V...
3 weeks ago
Türkiye: Tight Monetary Policy Drives Disinflation, Eases External Liquidity Pressures
The policy pivot initiated by the Central Bank of Türkiye (CBRT) 18 months ago should pay further dividends and help mitigate challenges for Türkiye’s economy.However, the authorities have little room for complacency. Türkiye’s annual inflation at 52% in...
2 weeks ago
Germany: Demographic Challenges Require Reforms Amid Political Fragmentation
These structural weaknesses are expected to become increasingly relevant over the coming years as the risk of political gridlock compounds other pressures on maintaining Germany’s economic competitiveness.Germany is already among the worst-placed large ec...
1 week ago
Global Economic Outlook: A Resilient World Economy Faces US Election Test
As we enter the fourth quarter of 2024, the global economy continues to grow resiliently in the face of multiple challenges in recent years. The latest challenge is a risk re-appraisal of euro-area sovereign debt markets after the snap elections in France...
1 week ago
Italy: Fiscal Consolidation on Track But High Debt, Structural Weaknesses Persist
Italy has unveiled its new fiscal structural plan aiming to reduce its fiscal deficit targets and start reducing its debt to GDP from 2027. The proposed fiscal tightening hinges on a combination of higher fiscal revenues and targeted spending cuts, a grad...
6 days ago
Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and US Dollar Technical Analysis: Price Patterns and Key Levels
WTI crude oil (CL) dropped on Tuesday and consolidated below key levels. However, it rebounded from the session low following the release of gasoline inventory data. The data showed a decline of 6.3 million barrels from the previous week. A decrease in ga...
6 days ago