Post Preview

  • GBPJPY is edging higher today, recording another green session

  • It remains around 10% below its recent peak

  • Momentum indicators acknowledge this bullish reaction

GBPJPY is edging higher again today, recording its third consecutive green candle and recovering by around 4% above its August 5 low. The market has settled down a bit following the recent rout, with GBP recovering a tad after the recent BoE rate cut. Low liquidity is probably amplifying the latest moves with the market gradually turning its focus to next week’s key UK CPI report.

In the meantime, momentum indicators are acknowledging this bullish reaction. More specifically, the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) is trading sideways and thus signaling a weakening bearish trend in GBPJPY. Similarly, the RSI is edging higher, towards its midpoint. More importantly, the stochastic oscillator is moving higher, breaking above both its moving average and oversold territory (OS), and thus supporting the current muted bullish move in GBPJPY.

If the bulls remain confident, they could try to push GBPJPY above the March 31, 2004 low at 189.61 and then gradually retest the busy 192.57-193.60 area. This region is populated by the July 21, 2005 low, the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the July 20, 2021 – July 11, 2024 uptrend.

On the other hand, the bears are probably trying to regain market control. They could attempt to push GBPJPY back below the 185.21-186.75 area that is defined by the August 22, 2023 high and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. If successful, they could then stage a move towards the April 9, 2001 high at 181.36, with the chance to record a new 8-month low.

To sum up, GBPJPY continues to climb higher, but market momentum remains fragile, thus keeping the door to another correction.