Post Preview

  • NZDUSD had been in a recovery mode since early August

  • But 200-day SMA rejects advance after dovish RBNZ meeting

  • Oscillators deteriorate, yet remain neutral-to-positive

NZDUSD had been steadily regaining ground since the beginning of the month after finding its footing near the previous 2024 low of 0.5851 registered in April. However, the rebound paused at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), with the bears getting aided by a dovish RBNZ rate decision on Tuesday.

Should the recent spike to the downside translate into a reversal, initial support could be found at 0.5972, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.6368-0.5851 downleg. Failing to halt there, the pair could descend towards the April support of 0.5938. A violation of that zone could pave the way for the 2024 bottom of 0.5848, a hurdle that held strong both in April and August.

Alternatively, bullish actions could send the price to test the 38.2% Fibo of 0.6048 ahead of its 50- and 200-day SMAs. Conquering the latter, the bulls may attack the 50.0% Fibo of 0.6109. Even higher, further advances could cease around the 61.8% Fibo of 0.6170.

In brief, the RBNZ cut rates by 25 basis points and communicated that they even considered a 50 bps reduction, applying the brakes on NZDUSD’s steep recovery. Hence, a decisive break above the 200-day SMA is needed for the bulls to regain confidence for a full-scale recovery.