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  • USDJPY hovers around 20-period moving average (SMA)

  • Some upside momentum still present

  • Next move will likely depend on US CPI report

USDJPY is consolidating around its 20-period SMA after the rebound from the one-month low of 141.76 quickly ran out of steam. The RSI is fluctuating right beneath the 50-neutral mark, but the MACD continues to rise above its red signal line in the negative territory.

If the bulls manage to regain control, there’s likely to be a tough battle ahead as the 144.00 level is a short distance away and the 50-period SMA lies slightly higher around 144.50. A break above these obstacles is needed to set course for the 200-period SMA slightly below 147.00.

A climb higher would also take the price above the previous high from early September before the mid-August peak of 149.38 comes into view. After this, all eyes would turn to the 150 handle, which the bulls need to reclaim if they stand any chance of switching the negative medium-term trend to a more bullish one.

However, if the pair slips below its 20-period SMA, the 142.00 level could be tested again. Falling beneath this support barrier would risk a breach of the longer-term ascending trendline, after which there would be a danger of the price falling below 140.00, cementing the bearish structure.

For the moment, though, it’s a very neutral picture, which could last until Wednesday’s inflation report out of the United States at 12:30 GMT, with the data possibly determining the next direction.