In this week’s Technical cheat sheet, we’re diving into the EUR/USD currency pair, which has seen only a slight price fluctuation from 107.80 to 107.60 since mid-February. It appears the market is taking a breather, and we’re noting an environment of cautious consolidation.

Market sentiment & positioning

Current sentiment among retail IG clients shows a mixed reaction, with a significant shift from a predominantly bullish stance to a more balanced or even bearish outlook as per recent Commitments of Traders (CoT) data. This shift from a majority buying to a majority short position could point to changing perceptions and a more guarded approach among traders.

Technical perspective

From a technical standpoint, both weekly and daily analyses suggest a tilted yet neutral stance. The pair has been caught in relatively tight trading ranges, making it crucial to watch for any breakouts or breakdowns that could signal a new direction. Yet, the potential for short-lived signals means that vigilance is vital. Even the smallest cues in price movement or changes in volume could be the precursor to more significant shifts.