First Issue of U.S. Election Tracking – Who Will Enter the White House?

The 2024 U.S. presidential election is gradually heating up, and the support rates of the two main candidates—Donald Trump and Kamala Harris—are very close. As a leader in the industry, TMGM will conduct an in-depth analysis of this election from multiple perspectives before the election results are released, aiming to provide investors with a comprehensive and professional viewpoint. 

Debate: Trump doubles down on abortion lies, after-birth 'execution' misinformation 

This election is one of the closest in U.S. history, attracting global attention. However, for investors, instead of betting on who will be elected, it is more cost-effective to understand in advance how each candidate’s election might impact investment products. This article will primarily take this perspective to help investors prepare early and seize opportunities during the election. 

 

Current Election Situation 

CNN's state-by-state polling data released on August 18 shows that the Democratic Party has gained 225 electoral votes across the U.S., while the Republican Party has obtained 219 votes. Both are still short of the 270 votes required to win the election. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are key swing states in this election. The situation in these states during the 2020 election was as follows: 

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  • Arizona: In 2020, Biden narrowly won this state, and Trump may attempt to overturn the result. 

  • Georgia: In 2020, Biden won here, and Trump is likely to challenge again. 

  • Michigan: Biden won in 2020, but Trump will likely try to reclaim this state. 

  • Nevada: Biden won in 2020, and Trump may attempt to flip the state. 

  • North Carolina: Trump won here in 2020, but the competition was intense. 

  • Pennsylvania: Biden won in 2020, and Trump is expected to challenge this result again. 

  • Wisconsin: Biden won this state in 2020, and Trump will likely try to reclaim it. 

On the evening of September 10, Trump and Harris held their first presidential debate after the candidate replacement in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The debate was hosted by ABC News (and may be the only debate between the two candidates before the election). During the debate, they engaged in heated discussions on issues such as abortion rights, inflation, immigration policy, war, gun control, and healthcare. Poll results showed that most viewers believed Harris performed better in this debate, but experts still think the debate had limited impact on the overall election. About half an hour after the debate ended, American pop superstar Taylor Swift posted a long article on social media, publicly endorsing Harris. This news quickly spread among her 283 million followers. 

Pop superstar Taylor Swift endorsed Vice President Harris for president on Instagram on Tuesday. 

As of September 9, PredictIt betting data shows Trump leading Harris in odds, with 52% to Harris’s 51%. Harris has not yet significantly shaken Trump's voter base, and her advantage mainly stems from mobilizing more Democratic, independent, and neutral voters. Trump maintains a slight lead in the swing states, but it’s not very significant. 

 

If Trump is Elected 

If Trump is elected, he will become the second president in U.S. history to win a non-consecutive term. The first president to do so was Grover Cleveland, the 22nd and 24th president of the U.S., who was re-elected in 1892. 

Discontent over immigration and the economy fuel Trump's Super Tuesday romp | Reuters 

Investors familiar with the market are no strangers to the "Trump Trade." If Trump is elected again, it will likely cause the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious stance on rate cuts, as a business-friendly environment could potentially reignite the U.S. economy and increase inflation. In this context, the "Trump Trade" could encourage investors to increase investments in U.S. domestic stocks, favor short-term bonds, implement hedging strategies for a strong dollar, and diversify investments in safe-haven assets. 

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Key beneficiaries might include healthcare, banking, cryptocurrency, and oil stocks. In contrast, the biggest losers could be companies focused on clean energy, such as solar power, and companies that rely heavily on foreign trade or are foreign businesses conducting trade in the U.S. These companies may face greater challenges under Trump's policies. 

 

If Harris is Elected 

If Kamala Harris is elected, she will become the first female president, as well as the first president of Asian descent. Harris's economic policy is clearly positioned to "firmly stand on the side of the middle class." She proposes tax cuts for the middle-income group while raising taxes on the wealthy, which will help boost consumer spending. In contrast to Trump’s lenient financial policies, Harris’s strengthened regulation might negatively impact financial stocks. Stricter regulatory measures could increase operating costs for financial institutions and reduce profit margins. 

Harris is also committed to promoting U.S. exports, which is good news for large multinational corporations, as an improved international trade environment would provide them with more business opportunities. Additionally, she supports the development of clean energy, particularly electric vehicles and the solar industry, which will benefit related stocks. Recently, Harris also explicitly stated that if elected, she would support increased investment in the artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency industries, further promoting the development of these emerging technology fields. 

 

Regarding large tech stocks, Harris takes a firm stance on regulating artificial intelligence and emphasizes the importance of customer privacy, meaning her relationship with the tech industry will be closely watched. Companies may need to cope with stricter regulatory requirements. 

 

In summary, Harris's economic policy aims to consolidate the middle class's position and promote economic growth through tax cuts, increased exports, and support for clean energy and cryptocurrencies. However, these policies could also pose challenges for industries such as finance, healthcare, and technology. Investors should closely monitor policy trends and adjust their portfolios accordingly to respond to potential changes and risks. 

 

About TMGM                

TMGM Group was founded in 2013 in Sydney, Australia, and is the official trading platform partner of Premier League powerhouse Chelsea Football Club. As a broker providing financial product trading services to global clients, TMGM is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), the Vanuatu Financial Services Commission (VFSC), and the Mauritius Financial Services Commission (FSC), offering comprehensive security for investors. 

 

 

Disclaimer:                

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