US dollar futures (USDIDX) are gaining more than 0.1% today, supported by comments from Federal Reserve member Raphael Bostic. Today's U.S. unemployment claims data pointed to a still very low reading, suggesting a fairly strong labor market. Moreover, an even better picture of the market was shown today by the Fed's Philly regional data. J.P. Morgan analysts indicated that the chances of no rate cut are high, and the chance of a surprise hike, low.

Fed Bostic

  • We can keep rates unchanged as long as the labor market is doing well

  • We will probably be not able to cut rates before the end of the year

  • I expect the economy to continue to grow, despite our monetary policy

  • I do not expect a recession, in my forecast scenarios
  • The road to 2% inflation will be more bumpy and longer than people expected

 

Markets expect just once Fed rate cut this year, with one fully priced in November 2025. Source: Bloomberg Financial LP

USDIDX (M15 interval)

Source: xStation5