The Japanese yen is in negative territory on Friday after rising 0.89% a day earlier. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 152.82 at the time of writing, up 0.52% on the day.

Markets brace for super-soft nonfarm payrolls

The US releases the October employment report later today and the markets are bracing for a soft nonfarm payroll report of just 113 thousand. This isn’t due to the US economy crashing into a wall, but rather one-time events which likely took a chunk out of job growth this month – destructive hurricanes and the Boeing strike. If the market prediction is accurate, it would be the lowest nonfarm payrolls since December 2020.

Will the markets look beyond the jobs number? If so, a sharp nonfarm payrolls report shouldn’t trigger any panic. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1% and wage growth is projected to rise 0.3% m/m and 4% y/y, little changed from September.

The US will also release the ISM Manufacturing PMI later today. The manufacturing sector has been in the doldrums, posting only one month of growth in the past two years. The market estimate for November stands at 47.6, slightly better than the 47.2 reading in October.

In Japan, the drama continues as Prime Minister Ishiba fights for his political life. Japan’s parliament will convene on Nov. 11 to vote for the prime minister. Ishiba has been in power for only a month and his snap general election backfired, as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party failed to win a majority. The political instability has sent the yen reeling, as the currency plunged 5.8% against the US dollar in October.

USD/JPY Technical

  • USD/JPY has pushed past resistance at 152.49. The next resistance is 153.14
  • 151.39 and 150.74 are the next support levels

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