USD/MXN Forecast: USD Drops Against Peso
- The US dollar fell again during the trading session on Friday as traders continued to short the greenback based on the idea that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates.
- They should cut interest rates by 25 basis points on the 18th, but really at this point in time, I think there is only so much downside that's available due to the fact that there are plenty of technical reasons underneath to offer support.
- But furthermore, we also have to keep in mind that if the US economy does in fact slow down, that is going to be very toxic for the Mexican economy.
- Volatility continues to be a major issue. And while the interest rate differential certainly favors Mexico, traders don't like hanging on to volatility in emerging market currencies.
The pullback is strong, but it's not a huge surprise considering that the 20 level of course offered significant resistance and turning around the show signs of lot of resistance, selling pressure, et cetera, a little bit of market memory from the past. And now it looks like we're going to try to get to the 19 level. The 19 level of course has a lot of psychology attached to it so we will be paying close attention to it.
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If we can break down below there, that does change some things. But right now, I'll be watching the 19 level because it has been important multiple times. And of course, we have the 50 day EMA hanging around in that same general vicinity.
I do believe this is a market that will eventually bounce and go higher. But I also recognize that this is a market that will remain very noisy. If the U S dollar gets eviscerated, that could bleed over into this market, but that would only be in a risk on scenario. If we start to see real concerns about the global economy, Mexico is not going to be the place people want to be involved in.
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