Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today

  • Risk 0.50%.

Bullish Entry Points:

  • Open a buy order at 33.50.
  • Set a stop-loss order below 33.20.
  • Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
  • Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 33.75.

Bearish Entry Points:

  • Place a sell order for 33.75.
  • Set a stop-loss order at or above 33.94.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
  • Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 33.50.

USD/TRY Forecast Today 19/8: Lira Near Record Lows (graph)

Turkish lira Analysis:

The Turkish Lira declined against the US dollar during the beginning of the week's trading. The dollar price against the lira traded near its all-time high, which it recorded last Friday at 33.75 liras per dollar.

In terms of data, the Central Bank of Turkey revealed that the bank's total foreign exchange reserves in the week ending on the ninth of this month decreased by about $161 million to reach $92 billion 330 million. This is the total foreign exchange reserves that reached $92 billion 491 million in the week ending on August 3. At the same time, the Central Bank's total gold reserves increased by $57 million to reach $41 billion 572 million. Also, the data revealed that the Central Bank's total reserves decreased during the week ending on August 9 by $153 million compared to the previous week, as the total reserves reached $150 billion 233 million from $150 billion 386 million.

Western reports revealed a decline in the size of the reserves in the Turkish Central Bank due to the bank's expansion in supporting the Turkish currency about two weeks ago. Clearly, that’s due to the sharp fluctuations witnessed by global markets, which caused some hot money to exit Turkish bonds. According to reports, the Turkish Central Bank pumped about six billion dollars into the markets. Despite this support, the bank did not succeed in reducing the decline of the lira, which continued to deteriorate throughout the current month.

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TRYUSD Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:

Technically, the US dollar rose against the Turkish lira (USD/TRY), as the pair is trading near its highest levels ever recorded at 33.75 liras per dollar during early trading this morning. The pair rose in conjunction with the dominance of the general upward trend for the pair, as the pair rose for four consecutive weeks. At the same time, the pair maintained its trading above the 50 and 200 moving averages, respectively, which intersect positively (golden cross) on the daily time frame, as well as on the four-hour time frame. If the price rises, it will target the resistance levels concentrated at 33.75 and 33.99 liras, respectively. While if the pair declines, it targets support levels at 33.50 and 33.25 liras, respectively. Ultimately, the Turkish lira price forecast includes a rise in the pair if it settles above the upper limit of the wedge pattern.

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