USD/TRY Forecast: Lira Strengthens Amid Limited Range Movement
Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
- Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 33.95.
- Set a stop-loss order below 34.15.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 33.75.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 34.25.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 34.34.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 34.00.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The Turkish lira appreciated against the US dollar during today's trading, while the pair stabilized within the same limited range around 34 lira per dollar.
As part of the evaluation of the medium-term economic program that was launched last year, investors followed the statements of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in which he praised the economic situation, stressing that "with the decline in inflation, there will be high and stable growth." In the context of talking about economic performance, the Turkish President stated that the national income during the second quarter of 2024 exceeded 1.2 trillion dollars. Also 880,000 new job opportunities were provided during the past year, with the number expected to exceed one million job opportunities during 2024. Likewise, he added that the unemployment rate reached 8.8 percent. Regarding foreign trade, Erdogan indicated that exports recorded 256 billion dollars last year, which is a record number, while annual exports in August reached 262 billion dollars.
President Erdogan confirmed his expectations that the current account deficit would reach 1.7% of national income by the end of 2024 and decline to 1.3% by the end of the medium-term economic program. Regarding the tourism sector, Erdogan indicated that Turkey received 56.7 million visitors last year, noting that the target for this year is to achieve tourism revenues of 60 billion dollars.
Erdogan's statements come within the framework of reassuring the markets about the Turkish president's adherence to the tightening policy, which is often a source of concern for foreign investors regarding Erdogan's unconventional policies.
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1USD/TRY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the US dollar against the Turkish lira “USD/TRY” has declined slightly during today's trading. Meanwhile, the price is maintained movement around the exact number of 34 lira per dollar, which is the same limited range within which it has stabilized over the past weeks. The pair stabilized within the upward price channel on the daily timeframe, as shown by the chart attached. Furthermore, the price broke the lower boundary of the smaller price channel on the four-hour timeframe with the lira's price rise. Despite the current decline, the overall upward trend continues to dominate the trading of the dollar against the lira with the pair moving above the 50 and 200 moving averages, respectively, which intersect positively on the daily timeframe. Concurrently, the price traded between these same averages on the four-hour timeframe, indicating divergence in the medium term. If the price rises, it targets resistance levels cantered at 34.40 and 34.50 lira, respectively. While in the event of a decline in the pair, it targets support levels at 33.80 and 33.70 lira, respectively. The forecast for the Turkish lira price included an increase in the pair, especially as it stabilized above the upper boundary of the indicated price channel.
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