Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today

  • Risk 0.50%.

Bullish Entry Points:

  • Open a buy order at 33.95.
  • Set a stop-loss order below 34.15.
  • Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
  • Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 33.75.

Bearish Entry Points:

  • Place a sell order for 34.25.
  • Set a stop-loss order at or above 34.34.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
  • Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 34.00.

USD/TRY Today 09/09: Medium-Term Program Impact (graph)

Turkish lira Analysis:

The Turkish currency maintained its range-bound variance against the US dollar at the beginning of this week’s trading, as the pair continued to fluctuate in a limited range for about two weeks. Concurrently, the price stabilized around 34 liras per dollar. Last week, positive data was released on inflation in Turkey, as inflation fell to about 52% in August, as the inflation slowdown accelerates and is expected to reach the levels targeted by the Turkish Central Bank by the end of the year at about 40%.

Investors followed the statements of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who announced his support for the measures of the economic team, which is implementing a medium-term program extending between 2025-2027. The Turkish President stated that the program is running in parallel with measures to curb inflation. According to Erdogan, the economic program prioritizes investment, employment, production, and strengthening exports. It also supports the agriculture, industry, and advanced technology sectors.

Meanwhile, the government in Turkey published some data expectations earlier last week. Also, the government indicated expectations of recording a budget deficit to GDP during the current year estimated at -4.9%, with that deficit declining in 2025 to reach -3.1%. At the same time, the data included a reduction in GDP growth expectations next year in order to achieve a slowdown in inflation.

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USD/TRY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:

On the technical level, the US dollar price maintained its rise against the Turkish lira (USD/TRY) this morning, with the Turkish currency tending to rise slightly. Technically, the pair's trading stabilized within the ascending price channel on the daily time frame, as shown in the chart. While with the decline in the momentum of the movement, the price stabilized within a smaller price channel on the four-hour time frame.

The general upward trend continued to dominate the dollar's trading, with the price moving above the 50 and 200 moving averages, respectively. Technically, it which intersect positively on the daily time frame. On the other hand, the price traded between these same averages on the four-hour time frame, indicating a medium-term divergence. If the price rises, it targets the resistance levels concentrated at 34.40 and 34.50 liras, respectively. While in case the pair declines, it targets support levels at 33.80 and 33.70 liras, respectively. The Turkish lira price forecast includes a rise in the pair, especially since it settled above the upper limit of the price channel shown.

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