• Vance faces higher unfavorable ratings than Walz, making it challenging for him to be seen as the debate “winner” unless he exceeds expectations.
  • In the previous Trump-Harris debate, assets tied to the Harris/Walz ticket surged, while Trump-related stocks, including crypto, faced declines.

Democrat Tim Walz and Republican JD Vance are set to clash next week in the sole U.S. vice presidential debate, an opportunity for both candidates to bolster their running mates’ platforms ahead of the crucial November 5 election. 

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Will the markets mirror the first debate’s outcome?  

Vance faces an uphill battle, with polling data showing he carries higher unfavorable ratings compared to Walz. So, unless Vance exceeds expectations during the debate, the “winner” will likely be the more favored candidate going in. 

During the first debate between Trump and Harris, assets linked to the Harris/Walz ticket surged post-debate. Green economy stocks rose 4.1%, renewables climbed 4.0%, and oil gained 2.1%, driven by lower supply expectations. Semiconductors saw a 4.4% uptick. Meanwhile, Trump-trade assets stumbled, with Trump Media & Technology Group plunging 13%, and crypto-related stocks, including Bitcoin, pulling back.