If you're in the plastic production business, you might just be praying for a Trump victory on Nov. 5.

As countries prepare to jet off to Busan, South Korea, later this month to negotiate a binding global treaty to end plastic pollution, a cloud of uncertainty hangs over them: What version of the U.S. will they be dealing with?

No matter who wins the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5, the American delegation will be negotiating in a time of transition until the next president is inaugurated in January.

And while the assumption is that Kamala Harris would carry forward President Joe Biden’s mantle on environmental matters should she win, all bets are off if Donald Trump secures victory.

That’s rattling proponents of an ambitious treaty who are preparing for a potentially frozen and hamstrung U.S. delegation at the final round of negotiations next month in South Korea.

“A Trump election would really spell doom, I think, for a strong treaty, at least one that includes the United States,” said Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), who joined a congressional delegation at the last round of negotiations in Ottawa. “Under a Trump administration, there's no doubt that the U.S. would fall in with Russia and the Saudis and the other petrostates and the fossil fuel industry and support a treaty that probably makes for a good media cycle, but is really just a permission structure for plastic pollution and for the fossil fuel industry to continue business as usual.”

Trump has previously pulled the U.S. out of the Paris Climate Accords and has vowed to do so again as part of his long-running antipathy toward international agreements. A Trump win would prompt obvious concerns about the willingness of the U.S. to continue to engage in the negotiation process if it’s still ongoing come January — and its commitment to implementing the deal as one of the world’s largest plastic consumers if an agreement is struck. A Trump win would also be a major score for oil-rich countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran and Russia who have been accused of purposely torpedoing the talks.

That’s also ramping up pressure on negotiators wanting a more prescriptive plastics treaty to finalize the text this year and not send the talks into overtime to limit the influence of a Trump administration — which could otherwise exert more influence in further rounds of negotiations. 

“We assume that … they will have very different positions in the Trump administration that could play a very disruptive role in the negotiations if we continue and that the group of oil countries, Saudi and the likes, would have ample opportunity to just hide behind the U.S. or coordinate with the U.S. and just become bigger and more obstructive,” said a negotiator from a country in the self-named High Ambition Coalition to End Plastic Pollution, a group of countries backing a reduction in plastic production.  

The ratification dilemma

But, said one diplomat of a U.S. ally, it hasn’t always been easy negotiating with the current American delegation under President Joe Biden, whose administration until recently rebuffed calls to include plastic production reduction targets in the treaty. The U.S. shifted positions over the summer and now supports that goal — which prompted pushback from Republican lawmakers in Congress, a potential sign of what’s to come should the GOP win control of the White House and Congress. The U.S. also has a poor track record of ratifying global treaties. 

“The negotiators from the U.S. will be, clearly, in a difficult position to land this” agreement, regardless of the outcome, said a second diplomat from a high-ambition country granted anonymity to discuss the situation. “What is going to be really challenging is the process of ratification. The United States has been historically difficult in ratifying binding U.N. treaties. And I think that is going to be where the challenge is: How do you land this at home?”

That sentiment is one that continues to hang over U.S. negotiators, and is only amplified in a time in which both a presidential transition and a self-imposed global deadline to land a deal are colliding. U.S. ratification of international treaties requires 67 votes in the Senate and presidential approval.

“The timing of the whole INC [intergovernmental negotiating committee] process had something to do with the U.S. elections,” said one person close to the negotiations. “But I'd be hard pressed to find anyone really expecting the U.S. to become a party, given their track record among chemicals and waste conventions (with Minamata the big exception).”

“Our inability to ratify treaties is a big problem for us in the world,” said a former top U.S. negotiator. The U.S. hasn’t ratified international agreements like the Convention on the Law of the Sea and the Convention on Biological Diversity.  

The negotiator said Vice President Kamala Harris is clearly the better option in terms of both taking the plastics threat seriously and working diplomatically to advance the most ambitious agreement. But they also downplayed the concern that if the U.S. were to leave the plastics treaty process, that China would automatically follow.

A Trump win “doesn't give them cover because they do what they want anyway,” the negotiator said.

Erin Simon, vice president and head of plastic waste and business at the World Wildlife Fund, said “everyone feels uncertain” about the state of the plastics negotiations — but that the U.S. election “is just one element of that.” The larger threat is kicking the can down the road if countries can’t reach agreement next month and the issue losing the momentum it’s been gathering. 

Even though the U.S. plastics industry is opposing the country’s new stance, calling it a “lose-lose situation,” it stressed the importance of remaining in the process and landing a global agreement. 

“America’s plastic makers have supported a global plastics treaty focused on ending plastic pollution since the UNEA resolution in March of 2022, and we continue to do so today,” said Ross Eisenberg, president of America’s Plastic Makers. “We will work with the Administration and Congress, regardless of who’s in power, to encourage adoption and implementation of a workable, equitable treaty. U.S. participation is essential for achieving an agreement that brings U.S. innovations that can help eliminate pollution to the global community," he said.